Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,682$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,388.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 69.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,388.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-06-30

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,209$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{846,433.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(846,433.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,657$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(42.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,282.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 82.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,282.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75,009$ on 2020-06-30

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,039$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(190 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,030.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,030.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $170$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(10.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,472.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 173.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,472.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,443$ on 2020-06-30

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,311$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,532.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107,532.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,953$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(73.2 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,898$ on 2020-06-30

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,363$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(7.92 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,204.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 86.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,204.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $129$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 72.7)}}\) (asimptote \(130.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,612$ on 2020-06-30

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,227$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(34.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,827.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 110.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,827.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(0.372 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $583$ on 2020-06-30

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,001$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,043.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 71.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,043.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 75.9)}}\) (asimptote \(86.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-06-30

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,907$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,824.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 64.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,824.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $912$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(178 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{898.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(898.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,098$ on 2020-06-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 97%
Djibouti recovered 96%
Guinea recovered 39%
Sierra Leone recovered 17%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(177 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(30.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.8}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(71.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-30

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,391$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(699 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,487.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 51.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,487.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,032$ on 2020-06-30

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,462$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,516.2}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,516.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(15.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(54.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $428$ on 2020-06-30